Grocery Outlet (GO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is actively restructuring its business with a strategic focus on expanding new unit growth, aiming to add 30-35 stores by 2026 and completing approximately 150 store refreshes. The company anticipates a return to normalized growth driven by these turnaround efforts, which include improvements in supply chain management, IT capabilities, and the enhancement of core merchandise offerings. Notably, positive customer traffic trends were observed, particularly in November, indicating a rebound supported by improved market conditions following the US government shutdown.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp has signaled a disappointing performance forecast for 4Q25, with comps expected to be flat, a significant decline from prior estimates due to weak sales trends exacerbated by recent government shutdown issues affecting SNAP benefits. In November, the company experienced a sharp decline in EBT-related sales, with an 8.2% decrease compounding existing pressures on customer spending power and leading to a decline in average transaction size. Overall, the persistent decline in sales and the adverse economic environment affecting its core customer base contribute to a bleak outlook for Grocery Outlet's financial performance.