General Motors (GM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

General Motors is supported by a stronger 2026 operating outlook, with Adj. EBIT guidance raised by $500M at the midpoint to $14-16B on $250M better pricing and $250M of warranty improvement, while lower commodity pressure could leave room for further upside. Its outlook is also reinforced by dominant U.S. exposure in full-size pickups and SUVs, 2025 U.S. share of 17.4% up 60 basis points from 2024, and improving tariff visibility that could reduce the $2.5-3.5B gross tariff burden embedded in guidance. Beyond the core auto business, high-margin recurring growth from OnStar, Super Cruise, GM Defense, GM Insurance, and energy storage provides a credible path to margin expansion and a higher-quality earnings mix.

General Motors is facing a fundamentally pressured setup because the apparent offsetting benefits from EV rightsizing and warranty cost improvements are outweighed by larger drags from commodity inflation, DRAM, and higher US onshoring costs. Even with about $750M y/y of EV rightsizing and another $750M y/y of warranty cost benefits, the company still absorbs roughly $1,150M of higher commodity inflation and DRAM plus $850M of higher US onshoring costs, while lower CAFE credits add another $225M headwind. That mix supports a negative outlook, especially since the downside cases for 2026E and 2027E assume Auto EPS about 25% below base case and only ~4x P/E for GM Tech’s potential, implying limited confidence in future earnings power.