GFL Environmental (GFL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

GFL Environmental Inc. is poised for sustained growth and profitability, primarily driven by a robust track record of mergers and acquisitions, which has led to an average annual revenue growth of 15.6% between 2021 and 2023. The company is forecasting a significant improvement in employee turnover, which is anticipated to enhance EBITDA by $20 million to $30 million, alongside an expected steady increase in EBITDA margins to the low-to-mid 30% range by 2028. Additionally, GFL's shift towards fixed processing fee revenues is projected to rise to 63% by 2025, reducing volatility from commodity prices and bolstering overall business scalability and operating leverage.

GFL Environmental Inc faces a negative outlook due to anticipated declines in financial metrics, particularly a potential drop in its leverage ratio to approximately 2x by 2028, despite expected growth investments. The company's dependence on secondary markets for 73% of its solid waste business further complicates its position, as it navigates potential challenges such as commodity price volatility and tightening regulations. Additionally, the firm may experience delays in deleveraging and integration difficulties following acquisitions, creating concerns around future profitability and stability.