Geron (GERN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Geron Corp has recently secured approval for its drug Rytelo in the European Union, which is expected to expand the company's revenue streams significantly starting in 2026. The anticipated approval for relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis could potentially double the commercial opportunity for Rytelo, further enhancing Geron's market position in the oncology sector. With strong initial prescriber feedback and proactive plans for increasing physician engagement and patient education, Geron is well-positioned for a successful launch and growth in sales in key therapeutic areas.

Geron Corporation’s outlook appears negative primarily due to a slowdown in the momentum of the Rytelo launch for lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, resulting in flat revenue trends over recent months. Management has indicated that while 3L patients are driving the majority of Rytelo prescriptions, the uptake among 2L patients has not met expectations, raising concerns about growth potential. Additionally, the revision of peak sales estimates for Rytelo from $1.2 billion to $1.0 billion reflects a cautious stance in light of potential risks including clinical efficacy issues, regulatory challenges, and increased competition.