
Genius Sports (GENI) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Genius Sports (GENI) Analyst Ratings
Bulls say
Genius Sports is viewed favorably because it is translating its proprietary data and distribution advantage into stronger monetization across betting and media, with 2Q revenue and adjusted EBITDA beating estimates by 6% and 17%, respectively. The bullish case is reinforced by meaningful revenue from prediction markets, new deals with Kalshi and Polymarket, and media strength as legacy GENI Media and Legend both grew more than 20% YoY, while 2Q media revenue exceeded expectations by 7.6%. Management’s raised 2026 guidance for revenue of $1,005 million to $1,025 million and adjusted EBITDA of $285 million to $295 million, plus an expected 28.6% EBITDA margin and lower leverage, support confidence in durable top-line growth, margin expansion, and free cash flow generation.
Bears say
Genius Sports is viewed negatively because its sports betting GGR growth may slow through ’25, while weaker-than-expected pricing power in negotiations with operators could leave take rate only modestly higher over the medium term. That combination would pressure revenue growth and, given high fixed costs, limit margin expansion from current levels despite its proprietary technology and broad B2B footprint. The quant model also flags a weak Quality profile, suggesting a less stable earnings stream and reinforcing concerns that dependency on strategic relationships, customer retention, and live betting adoption could temper fundamentals.
This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of Genius Sports and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.
Genius Sports (GENI) Analyst Forecast & Price Prediction
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