Greif (GEF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Greif Inc. has reported a year-over-year increase of approximately 4.7% in primary product volumes within its Global Industrial Packaging segment, demonstrating resilience amid mixed end-market demands, with an ongoing shift towards less cyclical products and higher EBITDA margin segments expected to enhance cash flow generation. The Paper Packaging and Services segment is also poised for improvement, with a 2.9% year-over-year increase in primary product volumes driven by rising demand for containerboard, and anticipated margin recovery from recent pricing strategies aimed at optimizing operations. Furthermore, projected AEBITDA for FY25 is estimated between $768 million to $847 million, with potential upside from volume recoveries, operational efficiency, and pricing actions, all contributing to a positive financial outlook for the company.

Greif Inc. has experienced a decline in EBITDA margins of approximately 215 basis points year-over-year, reflecting challenges in its operational performance. The company faces several downside risks, including deteriorating supply and demand conditions in key markets, heightened input cost volatility, and potential inefficiencies in managing price and input costs amidst broader economic uncertainties. Additionally, the sale of Delta Petroleum is projected to create a $4 million headwind to Global Industrial Packaging's EBITDA, suggesting further pressure on profitability as sales and demand remain closely tied to industrial production metrics.