FWRG Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) demonstrated a positive performance in 4Q24, with total revenue reaching $263.3 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 7.6%, despite a slight decline in same-store sales driven by traffic challenges. The company's EBITDA rose to $155 million, reflecting effective cost management and lower-than-expected general and administrative expenses, which positions FWRG favorably for continued growth. With expectations for positive same-store sales growth in FY25, alongside improvements in traffic trends and strategic investments in marketing and digital initiatives, FWRG is well-positioned for future expansion and market share gains.

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. faced a decline in restaurant-level margins, which dropped approximately 30 basis points year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, underlining potential operational challenges. The company's adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to fall about $4 million below the previous year, primarily due to increased commodity costs and labor inflation, alongside the impacts of new unit openings. Additionally, a tough consumer macro environment is expected to pressure sales growth, leading to forecasts of same-store sales operating at the lower end of management's long-term expectations, compounding the risks to overall financial performance.