FTAI Stock Forecast & Price Target

FTAI Aviation is supported by a differentiated engine lifecycle platform that combines MRE aftermarket services, Strategic Capital Initiative fee income, and the emerging FTAI Power business, creating multiple avenues for recurring demand and monetization. The company has already captured 14% of the CFM56 and V2500 aftermarket and expects annual module capacity to rise from 2,000 to 3,000 units at maturity, even as it trades some near-term margin expansion for deeper customer relationships and long-term cash flow visibility. The $1.465bn Mod-1 order from a leading international cloud service provider materially de-risks the 2027 Power rollout, supports roughly 59 of 100 targeted units, and helped lift 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates to $2.6bn.

FTAI Aviation is facing a weaker fundamental setup because its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook remains at $1.05bn while the Aviation Leasing segment was cut by $100mn, reflecting a slower-than-expected shift to an asset-light model and disappointing execution in a business that should be increasingly predictable. 2Q26 underscored the strain, as AP adjusted EBITDA of $249.7mn beat expectations but AL adjusted EBITDA of $88.2mn fell well short of consensus and BTIG estimates, hurt by capacity being directed to AP and a delay in aircraft sales to the SCI. Looking further ahead, lower 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates across AP, AL, and Power, including a reduced AL outlook of $450mn versus a prior $700mn and Power at $450mn versus $525mn, suggest the company’s growth and mix shift are less favorable than expected.