FTAI Stock Forecast & Price Target

FTAI Aviation is supported by a differentiated platform that combines aftermarket engine maintenance, asset management, and a new power conversion opportunity, all of which can compound cash flows across the commercial aviation lifecycle. Its proprietary MRE model is gaining adoption as airlines seek lower-cost alternatives, with 14% CFM56 and V2500 aftermarket share already captured and a path toward 25% penetration, while SCI adds asset-light fee income and captive feedstock. The newly announced $1.465bn Power order de-risks the 2027 delivery plan, and management’s 2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook of $2.3bn underscores meaningful operating leverage despite near-term margin tradeoffs.

FTAI Aviation is facing a weaker fundamental setup because Aviation Leasing materially underperformed, with 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $88.2mn versus estimates of $116.3mn and $126.7mn, as capacity was diverted to Aerospace Products and aircraft sales to the SCI slipped. Although Aerospace Products beat expectations at $249.7mn and management reaffirmed 2026 AP adjusted EBITDA of $1.05bn, the $100mn cut to AL guidance signals that the transition toward an asset-light model is still pressuring earnings and execution is less reliable than expected. The lower 2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook of $2.3bn versus prior assumptions of $2.7bn, driven by weaker AL and Power assumptions, supports a more cautious view on the company’s near-term earnings power and valuation trajectory.