First Solar (FSLR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Solar is well positioned because it owns the lowest-cost, fully domestic, vertically integrated supply chain in a market where Section 232 and AD/CVD actions are tightening the economics for imported modules and lifting the floor for U.S.-made product. Its CdTe technology avoids Chinese crystalline-silicon dependencies, while a backlog of roughly 45GW sold through 2029 and estimated ex-45X EBITDA margins near 23% support durable earnings power and strong cash generation. With about $15.5B of net cash projected by 2030 and optionality from IP licensing and tandem perovskite development, the company has both defensive downside protection and multiple paths to higher long-term profitability.

First Solar is facing a weakening fundamental setup because the policy-driven premium that supported its domestic module advantage appears increasingly temporary, while new U.S. and non-China supply will erode pricing power. High U.S. inventory, slower downstream project starts, and roughly 2 yrs of demand on the ground point to flat-to-declining medium-term pricing, even as FY26 sales are estimated at $4.9B and FY27 at $5.7B with volumes below consensus. Its ex-45X business still looks like a high-single-digit-margin manufacturer, so any Section 232 disappointment, 45X pass-through, or demand destruction from higher module prices could quickly compress earnings quality and trigger de-rating.