First Solar (FSLR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Solar has demonstrated significant liquidity improvements, reporting cash and marketable securities of approximately $1.2 billion, bolstered by tax-credit monetization and the sale of additional 45X credits. The company's revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted upward by about 2%, anticipating approximately $6.3 billion and $7.2 billion, respectively, driven by increased gross margins and favorable pricing trends in the cadmium telluride (CdTe) market. Furthermore, the anticipated cash windfall from 45X tax benefits, projected at $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion for 2025 and increasing to around $2.4 billion annually once the full capacity is online, reinforces a strong financial outlook for First Solar.

First Solar faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook for its stock, including an anticipated reduction in 2025 guidance, as approximately 35% of investors surveyed expect this outcome due to quality and performance issues with its modules. The company's average selling prices (ASPs) are under pressure from declining prices of competing crystalline silicon products, which may hinder revenue growth unless First Solar can effectively reduce its cost structure. Additionally, a decreasing backlog and uncertainties stemming from trade policy and potential lower utilization rates in Southeast Asia could lead to substantial earnings headwinds moving forward.