First Solar (FSLR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Solar has demonstrated improved liquidity, with cash and marketable securities increasing to approximately $1.2 billion, bolstered by tax-credit monetization and a transfer agreement for additional credits valued at up to $391 million. The company's revenue outlook for 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted to approximately 2% above current consensus, reaching around $6.3 billion and $7.2 billion, which is supported by slightly improved gross margins and favorable market pricing trends for cadmium telluride (CdTe). Additionally, the estimated tax value from the 45X credits is projected to generate significant cash flow, with expectations of approximately $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion in 2025, potentially increasing to around $2.4 billion annually as production ramps up.

The negative outlook on First Solar's stock is primarily driven by expected reductions in its 2025 guidance, with approximately 35% of investors anticipating this decline due to ongoing quality and module performance issues. Additionally, the company's average selling prices (ASPs) are under pressure from declining cadmium telluride prices and an inability to adapt to competitive technology advancements, which could further diminish demand for its products. Furthermore, challenges related to lean utilization rates in Southeast Asia and working capital issues may exacerbate the negative impact on First Solar's earnings if it fails to effectively manage costs and mitigate declining ASPs.