FND Stock Forecast & Price Target

Floor & Decor Hldgs is viewed positively because it is demonstrating resilient gross margin execution, with gross margin rising 25 bps year over year to 44.0% and underlying core gross margin up 86 bps despite opening two new DCs. Although revenue fell 0.7% to $1.152 billion and comps declined 3.7%, professional comps remained positive at 1.4%, suggesting the higher-value trade channel continues to outperform. The stock also looks attractive on valuation at 9.9x 2026E EBITDA versus peers at about 13.1x, supporting the view that long-term scale, margin expansion, and store growth can drive upside.

Floor & Decor Hldgs is facing a weakening fundamental backdrop as comps declined 3.7% in 1Q, revenue fell to $1.15B versus $1.19B expected, and transactions dropped 5.5%, signaling softer traffic and smaller basket sizes. Market share also slipped for a second quarter, while laminate and vinyl slowed sharply, forcing pricing actions that suggest pressure at the lower end of the assortment rather than durable demand strength. Although gross margin held at 44.0% and EBITDA margin was 10.5%, rising SG&A, guide cuts for FY26, and macro and housing sensitivity imply limited near-term earnings visibility and downside risk.