FLY Stock Forecast & Price Target

Firefly Aerospace is supported by a strong 2Q26 beat, with revenue of $117.7 million, up 45.5% sequentially and 659% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA of $(61.2 million) and free cash flow of $(106 million) remained consistent with a scaling business investing for growth. Its outlook is further underpinned by $1.5 billion of backlog, about 95% coverage into CY26 revenue guidance of $420 million to $450 million, and multiple program wins across spacecraft, national security, and AI software, including five secured lunar missions and a two-year Lockheed Martin extension through 2031. Liquidity also looks ample with roughly $635 million of cash and more than $300 million of undrawn revolver capacity, giving the company room to fund launch expansion, Eclipse development, and broader mission growth.

Firefly Aerospace is facing a fundamentally fragile setup despite strong 2Q26 revenue of $118M and a $1,468M backlog, because most growth is being driven by Spacecraft Solutions while Launch revenue lagged at just $9M amid Alpha delays. Its outlook is pressured by an emerging and highly competitive space market, concentrated customer and government exposure, and persistent execution risk across Eclipse, Alpha, Blue Ghost, and Elytra, all while the company has a history of operating losses and may need additional funding to reach cash flow breakeven. The combination of launch anomalies, regulatory and geopolitical risks, harsh space-environment exposure, and forecast cuts to FY26e revenue to $425M and EBITDA to $(273)M supports a cautious fundamental view.