First Hawaiian (FHB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Hawaiian is supported by a rare Hawaii deposit franchise, with roughly 32% statewide deposit market share, 31% of deposits in noninterest DDA, and a 1Q26 cost of deposits of just 1.20%, all of which should keep funding cheap and stable versus peers. Its earnings power is improving as net interest margin rose to 3.30% and management lifted FY26 guidance to 3.26-3.27%, aided by repricing tailwinds, while loan growth is expected to run at a 3-4% pace led by CRE and C&I. Credit and capital also look strong, with NPAs at 0.27% of loans and OREO, net charge-offs at 0.14%, CET1 at 13.1%, and sufficient excess capital to support dividends and resumed buybacks after the TCBK close.

First Hawaiian is viewed negatively because loan balances fell 3% LQA versus consensus growth of 3%, driven by CRE payoffs, a 6% drop in C&I, and 5% weaker residential lending, prompting management to cut FY26 loan growth guidance to 1% to 2% from 3% to 4%. Earnings quality also deteriorated as provision for credit losses jumped to $20.3M from $6.4M expected, with net charge-offs rising 49 bps to 0.60% on a $12.5M partial charge-off of a downtown Seattle office loan, while deposits grew only 1% LQA versus 5% expected. Despite a strong deposit franchise, the stock still trades at 12.9x the 2027 EPS estimate of $2.50 and 2.08x TBV, leaving limited room for disappointment if loan growth or Hawaii’s tourism-linked economy weakens.