FERG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ferguson Enterprises demonstrated a strong financial performance, with FY'26 total sales projected to increase to $31.9 billion, representing a 4% year-over-year growth driven by steady price and volume dynamics. The company achieved a notable organic revenue growth of 5.8% in F4Q25, supported by a healthy non-residential market that saw an impressive 15% revenue increase, largely due to robust activity in commercial, civil, and infrastructure sectors. Furthermore, Ferguson's gross margin improved to 31.7%, exceeding consensus expectations and reflecting effective operational execution along with favorable pricing trends.

Ferguson Enterprises has reported a decline in HVAC revenues by 1% due to affordability challenges driving a preference for repair services over replacements, impacting overall growth prospects. The residential end market revenues have remained flat year-over-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in housing starts and repair, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) spending. Furthermore, the firm faces multiple risks, including potential deflation in core product prices, increased competitive pressure, and a possible deep downturn in the housing market, which heightens the uncertainties surrounding its revenue and margin outlook.