FERG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ferguson Enterprises is supported by a durable North American franchise with more than 1,700 branches, over 1 million customers, and access to 37,000 suppliers, giving it scale and a broad distribution network that supports share gains and operating leverage. Its 2Q ’26 results reinforced that view, with Adj. EBITDA of $994 million above Street estimates, non-residential growth of about 8% and positive residential comps, while the FY ’26 guide was modestly raised and margins held resilient at 11.4% EBITDA margin and 9.5%-9.8% operating margin guidance. The company’s focus on multi-year large capital projects, steady inflation, strong free cash flow, and a proven capital return and M&A track record, all after exiting the UK in 2021, underpins confidence in long-term earnings compounding.

Ferguson Enterprises is exposed to a downside case where CY’26E EBITDA of $3.09 billion to $3.13 billion implies weakening demand, more intense competition, and a lower 12.0x EV/EBITDA multiple. The bearish view is driven by the risk of a deep and prolonged housing downturn or US recession, which would likely pressure repair, maintenance, and new construction spending across its North American customer base. It also faces margin risk if it cannot pass through input cost inflation, while failure to execute organic and M&A growth, plus seasonality and inclement weather, could further erode profitability.