FERG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ferguson Enterprises is demonstrating strong financial performance, with projected fiscal year 2026 total sales expected to reach $31.9 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase driven by sustainable pricing and solid organic growth. The company reported a significant increase in gross margin to 31.7%, benefiting from operational efficiency and effective timing of supplier price adjustments, along with a robust 15% growth in its non-residential end markets. Furthermore, the firm’s fourth-quarter results indicated a 6.9% increase in revenue and a 13.4% rise in adjusted operating profit, surpassing both estimates and consensus expectations, which underscores the strength of its market position in North America.

Ferguson Enterprises is experiencing a negative outlook primarily due to a 1% decline in HVAC revenues, attributed to affordability issues affecting replacement demand and a challenging comparison period linked to refrigerant standard changes. The residential end market remains stagnant, with revenues flat year-over-year, reflecting weak housing starts and reduced spending in repair, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) for the latter half of the fiscal year. Additionally, potential risks include a prolonged downturn in the housing market, increased competitive pressure, and challenges related to passing through input cost inflation, all of which could hinder growth prospects and operational execution.