Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Freeport-McMoRan reported strong operational results in 2024, selling approximately 1.2 million metric tons of copper, 900,000 ounces of gold, and 70 million pounds of molybdenum, reinforcing its position as one of the largest copper miners globally. The company boasts a robust balance sheet and a 25-year reserve of copper, with expectations of maintaining similar copper sales midcycle in 2029, which underpins the positive outlook for its stock. Furthermore, Freeport is actively pursuing sustainability initiatives, including a renewable energy agreement at Cerro Verde and plans to transition Grasberg operations, which marks a commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions significantly.

Freeport-McMoRan's stock outlook is negatively impacted by a projected decline in gold production, particularly due to falling output from its Grasberg operations, which could lead to a decrease in total sales volume. Despite lower capital expenditure guidance for 2026, the expected consensus EBITDA drop of approximately 20% suggests a reduced valuation multiple, underscoring ongoing challenges in meeting production targets. Additionally, Freeport’s valuation estimate has been adjusted downward, indicating a limited long-term growth trajectory as it navigates operational hurdles and competition within the copper mining sector.