First Bancorp (FBP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First BanCorp is supported by strong core earnings momentum, with 2Q26 EPS of $0.62 beating consensus, a record ROA of 2.02%, and better-than-expected NII, expenses, and provisioning. Its outlook is further reinforced by 5% loan growth and 6.6% deposit growth, alongside a 5.00% NIM driven by securities repricing and a low-cost, lower-beta deposit base that should keep profitability best-in-class. The company also benefits from Puerto Rico’s improving economic backdrop, including $129B of GDP in 2025, 16.9% CET1 capital, and stable credit trends that support continued organic growth and capital returns.

First BanCorp is viewed negatively because its earnings strength appears vulnerable to a combination of slower Puerto Rico growth, weaker auto-related lending, and rising credit costs, even if current profitability remains solid. Although 1Q26 metrics were strong with a 1.89% ROA, a 1.40% cost of funds, and a 7.66% loan yield, management expects ROA to ease toward 1.75% as fee income softens and provisioning rises. The stock’s fundamentals are also constrained by $354.2M in unrealized securities losses, $16.6B in deposits that fell 1.3% Y/Y, and exposure to real estate and asset-quality risks that could pressure future growth and returns.