First Bancorp (FBP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First BanCorp is supported by exceptional profitability, with a 2.02% ROA in 2Q26 and a 5.18% FTE NIM, reflecting its low-cost Puerto Rico funding base, disciplined expense control, and strong asset yields. Its consumer-led franchise is complemented by steady commercial growth, 5% loan growth and 6.6% deposit growth, while stable credit trends, declining criticized loans to 1.00% of the portfolio, and lighter provisioning suggest earnings quality remains strong. The balance sheet also looks flexible, with 16.9% CET1, a 79% loan/deposit ratio, and recurring securities repricing that should help sustain high net interest income and continued capital returns.

First BanCorp is exposed to a concentrated Puerto Rico franchise, where economic weakness could constrain loan growth, reduce revenue opportunities, and amplify dependence on its consumer banking base. Its outlook is also pressured by potential declines in Puerto Rico or Miami real estate values, which could raise credit costs, while asset quality deterioration and a larger-than-expected Fed rate cut would threaten profitability metrics and net interest income. Although the dividend payout ratio is 32% of earnings, low-to-mid-single digit balance sheet growth and share repurchases are likely to keep capital levels from rising much, limiting financial flexibility.