Expedia (EXPE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Expedia Group is attractive because its core lodging and merchant marketplace remains supported by firming hotel trends, improving traffic, and a business mix that benefits from high-margin transaction fees, while B2C bookings and room nights can still grow in the low-to-mid single digits. It also has multiple growth levers that appear underappreciated, including the booming B2B arm, ongoing One Key and AI initiatives, and newer Vrbo monetization changes like sponsored listings and higher host fees that could lift '27 top line growth and EBITDA margins. Financially, the stock looks compelling at under 13x '27 GAAP P/E, with management and analysts pointing to a strong free-cash-flow profile, capital returns, and EBITDA margin expansion of 150bps to 175bps on full-year guidance.

Expedia Group is viewed negatively because its growth is decelerating sharply, with management guiding 3Q bookings growth of just +5% to +7% Y/Y versus +12% in the prior quarter, while the core Vrbo and Hotels.com brands still need sustained room-night recovery after several periods of low-to-negative growth over the past two years. Its valuation discount appears justified by structural risks, including roughly 2/3 of revenue tied to the US consumer, which heightens exposure if domestic travel weakens, and by unresolved AI disintermediation risk that could pressure both B2C and lower-take-rate B2B economics. Although margin expansion to 25.3% and 26.1% is expected, the combination of slower bookings, geopolitical drags, and CFO-transition uncertainty suggests the turnaround remains fragile.