Expedia (EXPE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Expedia Group is projected to achieve significant growth, with an expected EBITDA of $450 million for the next quarter, reflecting a 13.4% margin and a notable 29% increase from the previous year's EBITDA of $349 million at a 10.7% margin. The company has demonstrated an expansion in gross bookings and adjusted EBITDA margins by 3.7 percentage points, while maintaining flat overhead expenses year-over-year at $640 million and achieving improved leverage on both overhead and cost of revenue. Furthermore, international performance showed promising results, with room nights increasing in low double digits year-over-year in key markets, and guidance indicates revenue growth for the upcoming quarters in the range of 11% to 13%, demonstrating strong momentum heading into 2026.

Expedia Group faces significant fundamental challenges, primarily related to its vulnerability to increasing hotel-direct bookings, which threatens its competitive position compared to rivals like Booking Holdings. The company has experienced pressure on EBITDA margins within its core hotel business, largely due to escalating sales and marketing expenses, with limited expectations for recovery in the near term. Furthermore, volatility in revenue per room night trends, driven by aggressive expansion in international hotel supply, combined with broader economic uncertainties, exacerbates the risks associated with Expedia's financial outlook.