Expedia (EXPE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Expedia Group is viewed favorably because its core marketplace still benefits from healthy travel demand, firming global hotel trends, and improving room-rate and airfare dynamics that support bookings growth and margin leverage. The company’s scale as the second-largest global OTA, with $119.6B of gross bookings last year, mid-20% Adj. EBITDA margins, and 415mm room nights, is reinforced by faster-growing B2B volume, which rose 22% Y/Y in 2Q and has surpassed 20% growth for four straight quarters. Additional upside comes from underappreciated Vrbo initiatives, rising advertising revenue, a 12.3% net revenue take rate, and valuation that remains modest at under 13x '27 GAAP PE despite an expected 8% to 9% gross bookings increase and 150bps to 175bps EBITDA margin expansion.

Expedia Group is vulnerable to slowing growth as management’s 3Q bookings guide of +5% to +7% Y/Y decelerates sharply from +12% in the prior quarter, while Vrbo and Hotels.com still need sustained room-night recovery after several low-to-negative periods over the past two years. Its core US consumer concentration, which drives roughly 2/3 of revenue, amplifies downside risk from weaker domestic demand, geopolitical disruption in Mexico and EMEA, and unresolved AI disintermediation pressure across both B2C and B2B. Although B2B bookings reached $10.7B in 2Q and grew 20%+, the segment carries lower economics that can pressure consolidated margin, and the stock’s ~14.7x 2027 GAAP EPS multiple seems warranted given these structural uncertainties.