Expedia (EXPE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Expedia Group is forecasting a margin expansion of 50-100 basis points alongside a revenue growth projection of 4-6%, indicating a robust financial outlook. The company's core brands, Hotels.com and Vrbo, which account for over 20% of global bookings, are anticipated to materially contribute to consolidated growth, particularly given the observed improvements in their U.S. performance. Additionally, an increase in global site traffic and U.S. receipt sales supports the positive trend, suggesting that an upward trajectory in U.S. B2C bookings could align with Expedia's guidance of 5-7% consolidated growth.

The financial outlook for Expedia Group's stock appears negative due to a projected decline in US Business-to-Consumer (B2C) bookings, with estimates indicating a decrease of 1-3%, which could significantly impact consolidated growth rates. Additionally, the company's EBITDA margins within the core hotel business have been under pressure, and analysts do not foresee an improvement in the near term due to ongoing sales and marketing expense deleverage. Lastly, the volatility in revenue per room night trends, exacerbated by the company's expansion efforts in international hotel supply, presents a risk that could further hinder revenue performance.