Exelixis (EXEL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Exelixis is supported by a diversified oncology franchise anchored by cabozantinib, which continues to show durable script growth and strong commercial traction, with 2Q sales raised to $574M and script growth estimated at 7% sequentially. Its growth case is further reinforced by Cabometyx’s expanding leadership in 2L+ NET, where management cited broad uptake, just under 50% capture of post-PRRT patients, and CABINET subgroup data showing meaningful PFS benefit in both non-functional and functional disease. Although STELLAR-303’s NLM analysis in previously treated mCRC was not statistically significant, the positive numerical OS trend and expectations for approval in all 3L+ CRC patients support a credible pipeline catalyst and market-consolidation opportunity.

Exelixis is fundamentally exposed to heavy product concentration, with Cabometyx anchoring the top line and 1Q26 net product revenue of $555M, but that durability is tempered by a 2031 LOE that limits the franchise’s runway. While the global cabozantinib franchise grew 12.5% to about $765M and RCC TRx share was roughly 47% with 14% volume growth, the company still faces material commercial, competitive, regulatory, and clinical risks, especially if zanzalintinib fails to deliver favorable data. On top of that, generic erosion, possible long-term dilution from additional equity financing, and an impairment of long-lived assets underscore a risk profile that can justify a negative outlook despite current cash generation.