Exact Sciences (EXAS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Exact Sciences is anticipated to expand its Cologuard market share significantly, with a current penetration of approximately 15% and a long-term target of over 40%, which is expected to enhance revenue growth. The company has raised its 2025 guidance exceeding previous Q3 estimates, driven by factors including increased average selling prices for Cologuard Plus and positive momentum in its core screening business, which achieved a year-over-year growth of 22% in Q3 2025. Additionally, Exact Sciences is initiating a digital marketing campaign for its Cancerguard blood test, targeting a projected incremental revenue increase of $25 million in the fourth quarter, alongside the positive trend of generating Adjusted EBITDA for the first time.

Exact Sciences is facing challenges in achieving sustained profitability, as evidenced by a history of net losses and uncertainty surrounding GAAP profitability. The company's reliance on promotional marketing for the demand of its Cologuard test raises concerns about long-term revenue stability, particularly with a revenue estimate for 2027 projected at $4.0 billion, which falls short of targets. Additionally, recent strategic decisions, including the announced acquisition, have prompted downgrades in stock ratings, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's future financial performance and potential market position.