Evolent Health (EVH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Evolent Health Inc. demonstrates substantial long-term revenue growth potential, particularly with the Aetna contract projected to exceed $2 billion in annual revenue, indicating a robust performance trajectory. The company currently addresses approximately 180,000 to 200,000 cancer cases yearly against a total market of over 2 million, highlighting significant opportunities for market expansion and increasing total addressable market (TAM). Additionally, Evolent's updated contracts now incorporate provisions to adjust cap rates in response to disease prevalence changes, which, combined with a stable growth trend, supports a positive outlook for the company's financial performance.

Evolent Health's stock outlook is negatively impacted by anticipated declines in higher-margin Exchange enrollment, which has led to a downward revision of the company's 2026 estimated EBITDA. Specifically, a projected 5% drop in Medicaid membership could result in an EBITDA reduction of approximately $8 million to $10 million. Additionally, the potential for a 10% decrease in Exchange enrollment could further exacerbate financial pressures, translating into a decline of $10 million to $15 million or more in EBITDA.