Evolent Health (EVH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Evolent Health Inc. demonstrates a strong growth trajectory, supported by the potential for significant revenue increases from key contracts, such as the Aetna contract, which is anticipated to surpass $2 billion in annual revenue. The company's expanding pipeline, valued at $650 million, alongside its robust market position in specialty-focused value-based care, indicates a promising outlook for future performance. Additionally, ongoing trends promoting value-based payment models, particularly in government programs, are expected to bolster demand for Evolent Health's solutions, further enhancing its financial prospects.

Evolent Health Inc. faces significant financial challenges, as projections indicate a substantial drop in non-enhanced revenue from approximately $285 million in 2025 to $170 million by 2026, driven by shifting enrollment dynamics. Additionally, anticipated declines in high-margin exchange membership could further exacerbate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), with expectations for 2026 EBITDA now reduced to a range of $134–$144 million, accounting for potential headwinds from decreasing contract values and enrollment. With predicted EBITDA impacts from both Medicaid and Exchange enrollment losses amounting to approximately $18 million to $25 million, the outlook remains negative as the company navigates these substantial operational and market pressures.