Etsy (ETSY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Etsy has achieved significant financial milestones, reporting a consolidated gross merchandise volume (GMS) of $12.5 billion for 2024, underlining its position as a leading player in the e-commerce marketplace, particularly in vintage and craft goods. The company has demonstrated resilience with a revenue growth of 6.1% year-over-year, and a notable 59% year-over-year increase in U.S. GMS, reflecting robust demand and user engagement across its platforms, including a strong performance from its subsidiary, Depop, which saw GMS up 39.4% year-over-year. Additionally, the reactivation of buyers on the core marketplace increased by 3.8% year-over-year, contributing to the overall positive outlook for Etsy's operational momentum and its strategies to enhance user experience and monetization.

Etsy's Total Active Buyers have experienced a year-over-year decline for five consecutive quarters, decreasing by 4% to 93.2 million, down from 93.3 million in the previous quarter. This trend, coupled with an 8% year-over-year decline in the second quarter, indicates a significant drop in user engagement on the platform. Additionally, the company faces pressure on margins due to Depop's brand marketing investments, contributing to an overall decline in EBITDA estimates by approximately 5%, reflecting sustained weakness in key product categories and the discretionary nature of its offerings.