ET Stock Forecast & Price Target

Energy Transfer is positioned to benefit from its scale as a diversified midstream operator with major exposure to natural gas, NGLs, crude, and refined products, especially given that roughly 45% of earnings are tied to natural gas and 25% to NGL. Management’s repeated guidance increases to a midpoint of $18.95B FY26 adjusted EBITDA, supported by strong Marketing, SUN, and pipeline optimization, suggest conservative expectations with additional upside from elevated commodity prices and continued volume growth. Its $5B/yr growth spend through 2029, 300kbd Y-grade contracts, extended ethane agreements to 2041, and incremental projects tied to LNG exports, data centers, and power demand reinforce a visible, multi-year earnings runway.

Energy Transfer is exposed to several fundamental headwinds that weaken the bullish case, including execution risk on growth projects, permitting delays, and a regulatory backdrop that could restrict hydrocarbon flows. Its heavy leverage makes earnings and valuation vulnerable to higher interest rates, tighter debt markets, and any credit rating downgrade, while commodity volatility and weaker drilling activity in core regions could pressure volumes and revenues. Near-term results also face a tougher comparison as EBITDA is set to lose about $130MM from one-time crude-segment benefits and the reversal of 1Q inventory gains, underscoring the fragility of reported earnings.