Equity Residential (EQR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Equity Residential is projected to achieve 3.0% year-over-year same-store revenue growth in 2025, along with a similar escalation in expenses of 3.7%, resulting in a solid same-store net operating income (SSNOI) growth of 2.6%, which aligns with management's guidance. Additionally, the anticipated increase in funds from operations (FFO) estimates for 2025, raised from $3.93 to $4.04 per share due to expected non-operating asset gains, further supports a favorable financial outlook. For 2026, the company is modeling consistent performance with 3.7% growth in both same-store revenue and SSNOI, indicating sustained operational strength and stability.

Equity Residential's stock has experienced a notable decline of 9% this year, underperforming the apartment sector and the VNQ index, indicating a potential weakness in its market position. The company faces significant risks associated with weakening apartment rental demand in its key markets such as San Francisco and Los Angeles, where it may be vulnerable to competition and migration trends. Additionally, rising interest and cap rates could adversely impact the valuation of Equity Residential's portfolio, further complicating its financial outlook as it attempts to redeploy capital into new and expansion markets.