EPRT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Essential Properties is attractive because it combines rapid AFFO growth with disciplined capital deployment, as 2026 guidance was raised to $2.02-$2.05 and 2027 guidance calls for $2.10-$2.18, with the midpoint implying 7.7% and 5.2% y/y growth, respectively. Its portfolio remains well diversified across 2,580 properties with a 14.2-year weighted average lease term, 91.8% of cash ABR from service or experience-based businesses, and only 4.7% of ABR expiring through 2030, supporting cash flow durability. The balance sheet is also strong, with pro forma net-debt plus preferred to adjusted EBITDA at 3.8x, $1.3 billion of liquidity, and a 59.3% 2027E FAD payout ratio that leaves room for continued investment.

Essential Properties is facing a negative outlook because its 2Q26 operating performance came in below expectations, with AFFO per share of $0.50 and FFO per share of $0.53 both missing internal and Street estimates. Although AFFO and FFO still grew year over year by 9% and 6%, respectively, the size of the miss suggests weaker-than-expected earnings power relative to consensus. For a net-lease REIT that depends on steady, predictable cash generation, even modest shortfalls can raise concerns about execution and the durability of growth.