e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

e.l.f. Beauty Inc. demonstrated strong financial performance in F3Q25, with sales increasing by 31% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the consensus expectation of approximately 22%. The company is projecting an increase in gross margin by 40 basis points year-over-year for F2025, underpinned by cost savings and favorable foreign exchange impacts, contributing to gross margin expansion in F4Q25. Furthermore, international sales surged by 66% year-over-year, highlighting significant growth potential, while digital consumption trends remained robust, suggesting continued market engagement and brand strength.

e.l.f. Beauty has experienced significant challenges within its Face Makeup category, including decelerating sales on a year-over-year and two-year basis, along with a noted loss in market share since its August peaks. The company has lowered its full-year guidance, projecting only about 1% sales growth for the fourth quarter, substantially below consensus expectations, and raises concerns that future fiscal year guidance could also come in weaker than anticipated in terms of sales and EBITDA growth. Additionally, the decline in distribution points since mid-June and ongoing drops in sales velocities indicate a weakening demand, further complicating e.l.f. Beauty's financial outlook.