Equifax (EFX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Equifax is well positioned by its scale in credit reporting, where its reports remain essential to lenders’ underwriting decisions, while roughly 40% of revenue from Workforce Solutions and about 25% from outside the United States diversify earnings beyond mortgage sensitivity. The company is also translating growth into stronger profitability, with 3Q results showing a revenue increase of 9.6% year over year, adjusted EBITDA of $560.2 million, and EPS of $2.26, alongside management’s AI-driven productivity progress toward a $150 million savings target. Its bull case is further supported by more than $550 million in year-to-date Government contract signings, rapid VantageScore adoption by about 2,000 mortgage lenders, and the potential for meaningful margin upside as subscription-based government work and lower-cost score conversion scale.

Equifax is facing a negative fundamental setup because persistent high interest rates are pressuring mortgage originations, with 3Q26 hard inquiry volumes down about 9% year over year and management guiding 4Q26 U.S. mortgage revenue below prior expectations. At the same time, regulatory overhang around a possible tri-merge to bi-merge shift could reduce annual revenue by about $80 million and pressure margins by roughly $38 million, while weaker trends in consumer lending, Auto, Financial Institutions, and Talent add to the slowdown risk. Although Workforce Solutions remains a major contributor at about 40% of revenue and international operations provide diversification, the firm’s FY27 revenue growth of about 5.6%, adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.2%, and EPS of $9.00 all trail consensus and imply limited near-term upside.