Equifax (EFX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Equifax's revenue projections for FY25 have been upgraded to a range of $6.03-$6.06 billion, reflecting positive market sentiment and growth acceleration in its Employer Workforce Solutions (EWS) segment. The EWS segment has demonstrated resilience with a year-over-year growth of 4.7%, particularly driven by significant increases in government services and consumer lending, suggesting enhanced demand for income and employment verification services. Additionally, Equifax's reported 3Q revenue of $1.55 billion represents a 7.2% increase year-over-year, exceeding both prior estimates and consensus, highlighting the firm’s robust operational performance and potential for further growth.

The outlook on Equifax's stock is negative due to anticipated EBITDA declines of 10% driven by a lack of contract wins and increased competition, alongside a projected high single-digit year-over-year decline in mortgage inquiries impacting revenue. The company's exposure to foreign exchange headwinds, coupled with a history of damaged reputation from a significant cybersecurity breach, raises further concerns about its ability to maintain cash flow and navigate existing lawsuits. Additionally, Equifax's high debt load presents a refinancing risk in a volatile credit environment, potentially escalating interest expenses if favorable credit terms are not achievable.