eBay (EBAY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

eBay is attractive fundamentally because its marketplace is showing structural GMV momentum, with 2Q GMV up 15% to $22.4 billion, U.S. GMV up 24%, and Focus Categories, C2C, and recommerce each growing more than 20% while now representing over 70% of total GMV. The business is also improving monetization and engagement, as advertising revenue rose 23.7%, active buyers reached 136 million, and AI-enabled listing and search tools appear to be lifting repeat behavior, listing efficiency, and sold items per attempt. Depop further strengthens the outlook by adding a younger, fashion-led C2C audience and supporting management’s raised FY outlook, while the company still generated $893 million of non-GAAP operating income at a 28.5% margin, underscoring durable profitability.

eBay is facing a fundamentally challenged setup because its 2025 base of $11.1 billion in revenue and nearly $80 billion of GMV still depends on reaccelerating marketplace growth, while the cited risks point to weaker GMV momentum, buyer and seller churn, and slowing eCommerce growth in key markets. Depop may broaden its recommerce and Gen Z appeal, but the $1.4 billion deal closed on July 30 carries a 3-4 point headwind to 3Q operating income growth, a mid-single-digit EPS drag, and roughly a 2 point full-year drag on operating income growth, pressuring near-term profitability. With 52% of revenue from the U.S., no current plan to alter U.S. fees, and advertising expansion still unproven, the company appears vulnerable to margin strain and execution risk despite its large user base of 135 million active buyers and 18 million active sellers.