Brinker International (EAT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brinker International Inc has shown significant financial improvement, with Chili's achieving a year-over-year same-store sales growth of approximately 25% and a traffic increase of 16%. The restaurant margins saw an expansion of 260 basis points, reaching 17.8%, and the adjusted earnings per share grew by over 100%, highlighting the company's strong operational efficiency and profitability. Furthermore, projections for fiscal year 2026 indicate an expected margin expansion of 30-40 basis points, supported by continued sales leverage and reduced investments, suggesting a robust and favorable outlook for the company's financial performance.

The analysis indicates a negative outlook on Brinker International's stock, primarily driven by anticipated EBITDA that is projected to be approximately 10% below the company's FY26 estimates, suggesting potential revenue pressures. The introduction of FY26 EPS guidance, while slightly above consensus, alongside expected modest same-store sales growth (MSD% comps), raises concerns about the company's ability to drive significant sales increases. Additionally, reliance on various catalysts, such as consumer spending trends and restaurant industry data, highlights the uncertainty surrounding the company's future performance and market conditions.