Domino's Pizza (DPZ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Domino's Pizza, the world's largest pizza chain, has achieved over $19 billion in system sales with more than 21,300 stores, primarily generated from a 99% franchised model that efficiently distributes revenue across its supply chain, US stores, and international franchises. With a consistent market share gain of approximately 100 basis points per year over the past decade and a favorable outlook driven by improvements in unit economics, sales from partnerships with delivery platforms, and innovative menu offerings, the company's position appears solid. Additional growth potential is seen in emerging markets like China and India, suggesting a continued positive trajectory for international sales as various initiatives begin to yield results.

Domino's Pizza, as the world's largest pizza chain with over $19 billion in system sales, faces significant challenges that could impact its stock negatively, including a projected need to refinance $1.3 billion of 4.2% debt by mid-2027, which may adversely affect earnings per share. The company is grappling with persistent headwinds in pizza delivery, diminishing its ability to achieve long-term 3%+ growth in the U.S. amid rising food and wage inflation, which is expected to result in a deterioration of restaurant margins. Additionally, projected adjusted EBITDA figures for 2026-27 fall below consensus estimates, reflecting concerns over market share loss to competitors and a potential slowdown in digital ordering.