Doximity (DOCS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Doximity is positioned for long-term strength because its core business is already proving resilient, with Q1 revenue of $157M rising 7% year over year, adjusted EBITDA of $75M at a 48% margin, and TTM net revenue retention of 107% overall and 112% among top customers. Its balance sheet is also a major support, with $688M in cash and no debt as of June 30, giving it flexibility to invest in AI Search and AI Scribe while absorbing near-term compute costs. More importantly, management’s commentary suggests AI is opening new pharma budget pools and expanding monetization beyond traditional advertising, while strong physician engagement and favorable product momentum could support faster growth and margin expansion over time.

Doximity is facing a more challenged outlook as tighter pharma budgets, MFN-related deal delays, and shorter-cycle renewals have reduced revenue visibility, with management itself guiding to only about 5% top-line growth in FY27 and acknowledging limited near-term upside from AI search. At the same time, the company is prioritizing AI investment, which is pressuring margins: FY27 EBITDA guidance was cut to $319M at the midpoint from $329M, non-GAAP gross margin fell to roughly 88% from 91% a year ago, and stock-based compensation near 23% of revenue continues to dilute profitability. Competitive threats from Epic, OpenEvidence, and AI-native tools further raise the risk of share erosion, making the stock look less attractive until AI monetization and revenue growth reaccelerate more visibly.