DAWN Stock Forecast & Price Target

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc. has demonstrated robust financial performance with total revenue reaching $131.2 million for the year, including significant contributions of $57.2 million from OJEMDA net product sales, driven by increased prescription volumes and improved gross-to-net revenue. The company is poised for continued growth, as prescribers gain more experience with OJEMDA, leading to its adoption in earlier lines of therapy and potentially longer treatment durations. Enrollment progress in the FIREFLY-2 trial further underscores the company's commitment to developing targeted therapies for pediatric patients, while inventory levels remain well-managed, ensuring product availability to meet the growing demand.

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. faces a negative outlook primarily due to regulatory changes that have impacted its product OJEMDA, which is now classified as a pediatric-only therapy, resulting in a reduced gross-to-net estimate that shifted from 15–18% to 12–15%. Additionally, the company's financial performance has shown significant losses, with a net loss of $65.7 million for Q4 and $95.5 million for FY24, indicating potentially unsustainable operating expenses particularly in the context of high non-cash stock-based compensation, totaling $11 million in Q4 alone. Furthermore, the future success of DAY101 is uncertain as there are concerns about its efficacy and safety, alongside potential commercial challenges from competing therapies, reinforcing the risks associated with the company's clinical and regulatory outcomes.