Dave (DAVE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Dave Inc. has demonstrated robust growth with a 16% year-over-year increase in monthly transacting members, reaching 2.6 million, driven by effective new member conversion and the reactivation of dormant users. The company's financials reveal a significant improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin, which rose to 38.6% compared to 19.0% in the previous year, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. Additionally, the annualized revenue per monthly transacting member surged by 42% year-over-year, increasing to $200 from $141, reflecting strong monetization of its user base.

Dave Inc. is facing challenges despite reducing fixed expenses as a percentage of total revenue, which declined from 32% in Q1/24 to 21%, indicating cost management efforts. Additionally, while the company has improved its operating leverage with operating expenses decreasing from 93% to 69% of total revenue in a year, this may be overshadowed by growing concerns regarding credit losses. The anticipation of a peak in the provision for credit losses as a percentage of originations in Q3/25 raises further apprehension about the sustainability of its financial health.