DoorDash (DASH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

DoorDash's core U.S. restaurant business is projected to continue growing in double digits, complemented by a significant expansion in non-core services, which now account for approximately 25% of global gross order value (GOV), up nearly 10 percentage points over the past two years. The company is capitalizing on its expanding user base, with over 100 million customers utilizing the platform and increasing delivery frequency, while the EBITDA margin has improved to 19.7% of revenue, showcasing strong profitability. Additionally, GOV growth remains robust, accelerating to 20.6% year-over-year, indicating a sustained recovery post-pandemic and reinforcing optimistic future earnings projections for FY25E and FY26E.

DoorDash is facing challenges with its financial outlook as indicated by a 4Q EBITDA and 1Q EBITDA projection that falls below expectations, suggesting increased costs to sustain its premium growth. The company's guidance reflects a deceleration in bookings of approximately 200 basis points for 1Q25E, which signals lower growth prospects that may compress the stock's near-term valuation multiple. Additionally, ongoing cash burn, regulatory pressures, and heightened competition in the delivery market contribute to a negative outlook, compounded by the potential volatility in consumer behavior impacting the company's unit economics.