CyberArk Software (CYBR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

CyberArk Software demonstrates a robust growth trajectory, driven by its successful transition to a subscription recurring-revenue model and a focus on platform adoption, resulting in an impressive 75% CAGR among large customers spending over $1 million. The average Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) from new clients has increased by over 45% since 2021, while the total addressable market (TAM) has grown significantly to $80 billion, expanding the potential customer base to over 80,000. With CyberArk's strong performance across various customer segments and the increasing demand for identity and access management solutions, the company is well-positioned for sustained growth.

CyberArk Software's outlook is hindered by a projected decline in Net New ARR, which is expected to drop to approximately $246 million in CY25, a significant decrease from the $395 million posted in CY24 that included contributions from the Venafi acquisition. The company faces several risks, including a saturated Privileged Access Management (PAM) market, challenges in expanding into adjacent areas of Identity Access Management (IAM), and the potential for a persistently weak macroeconomic environment to adversely impact margin expansion and cash flow. Additionally, external factors such as political instability and conservative customer spending during economic downturns further exacerbate the uncertainty surrounding CyberArk's future performance.