CoreCivic (CXW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

CoreCivic is positioned for significant revenue growth, with management projecting an annualized revenue potential of $2.5 billion by mid-2026, driven by enhancements to both existing and new facility operations. For FY25, the company has raised its guidance, anticipating adjusted EPS between $1.07 and $1.14 and FFO per share ranging from $1.99 to $2.07, alongside an expected EBITDA of $365 to $371 million, reflecting effective utilization of available capacity. The focus on activating idle beds, particularly with the upcoming operational capacity of new facilities, underscores a robust outlook for CoreCivic's financial performance.

CoreCivic's 3Q25 results fell short of expectations, with adjusted EPS at $0.24, primarily impacted by approximately $7.5 million in lower net operating income attributed to startup costs in the Safety segment. The company's FY25 guidance has been revised downward, reflecting expected adjusted EPS of $1.00-1.06 and NFFO per share of $1.94-2.00, largely influenced by delays in the activation of critical facilities and ongoing litigation. Additionally, concerns regarding funding availability and growing ESG pressures from investors may hinder the company’s ability to secure necessary capital, posing risks to future revenues and earnings potential.