CVSA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Covista is supported by a re-acceleration in Chamberlain, where enrollment grew 0.5% y/y to 40.8k and two straight quarters of double-digit application growth suggest the improvement may be sustainable. The company is also showing strong operating leverage, with adjusted EBITDA of $128M versus $117M expected and adjusted EPS of $1.98, while FY26E revenue was raised to $1.938B and FY27E to $2.065B. With Walden the largest revenue driver and favorable supply-demand dynamics across its healthcare and veterinary education base, the heavy fixed-cost model should translate modest enrollment gains into attractive margin expansion and earnings growth.

Covista is viewed negatively because broader AI-driven pressure on student acquisition, weakening lead flow, softer conversion, and rising CAC could keep sector multiples below 5-year averages and make a re-rating harder despite its comparatively lower GenAI exposure. Although F3Q was clean, with total revenue up 5% year over year to $487M and Walden, Chamberlain, and Med/Vet all beating consensus, the group still tends to trade together on quarterly results, limiting company-specific upside. Additional risks include forecasted Republican losses in the midterms, which historically correlate with weaker sector valuations, and new loan caps effective 7/1 that may pressure Med/Vet demand over coming years.