CTO Stock Forecast & Price Target

CTO Realty Growth has demonstrated solid operational performance, evidenced by a year-over-year increase in same-property net operating income (NOI) of 0.9% and positive cash rent spreads averaging 21.6% across 190,000 square feet of signed leases. The company’s outlook remains optimistic, with an increase in same-property NOI growth expectations to 250 basis points, bolstered by effective leasing strategies and successful turnover of leases at strong leasing spreads. Additionally, the upward revision of full-year Core FFO/AFFO per share guidance to a range of $1.84-$1.87 further reflects the company’s robust financial health and potential for enhanced valuation metrics.

CTO Realty Growth Inc is facing considerable challenges reflected in its financial performance, notably a GAAP EPS of ($0.77) that significantly missed estimates due to a $20.4 million loss from extinguishing convertible notes, which also led to a failure in funds from operations (FFO) expectations. The company's physical occupancy has declined to 90.2%, indicating potential difficulties in maintaining and attracting tenants, despite a slight improvement in leased occupancy. Additionally, leverage risks arising from fluctuations in interest rates may further depress returns to common shareholders and impact dividend stability, contributing to an overall negative outlook for the stock.