CTO Stock Forecast & Price Target

CTO Realty Growth has demonstrated robust leasing strength, with same-property Net Operating Income (NOI) increasing by 0.9% year-over-year and a positive cash rent spread of 21.6% on 190,000 square feet of signed comparable leases. The company has adjusted its 2025 guidance upwards, indicating strong expected same-property NOI growth of 250 basis points, coupled with the ability to turn over existing leases at favorable leasing spreads. Additionally, CTO has raised its full-year Core Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) per share guidance, reflecting improved financial performance and potential for upside in valuation metrics.

CTO Realty Growth Inc. is facing a challenging financial outlook, as its shares are trading at approximately a 31% discount relative to its third-quarter NAV estimate, indicating a lack of market confidence. The company's physical occupancy rate has declined to 90.2% from 91.0%, suggesting potential difficulties in tenant retention and lease renewals, despite a slight improvement in leased occupancy. Additionally, a significant GAAP EPS miss of ($0.77) due to a $20.4 million loss on extinguished convertible notes signals ongoing financial struggles and increases concerns over leverage risk amid fluctuating interest rates.