Cantaloupe, Inc (CTLP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Cantaloupe Inc. has demonstrated significant financial strength, evidenced by a robust year-over-year revenue growth of 11.1% and an impressive adjusted EBITDA growth of 36.6% for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. The recent 15.7% rally in stock price signals strong market confidence, particularly in light of a bid that reflects an approximately 18% premium over the company's previous closing price. The valuation, at nearly 14 times the consensus adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026, appears justified considering Cantaloupe's consistent top- and bottom-line growth trajectories.

Cantaloupe Inc. is facing a negative outlook due to the recent downgrade of its stock recommendation following the announcement of its acquisition by 365 Retail Markets for $848 million, which some analysts believe undervalues the company at $11.20 per share compared to a prior price target of $13. The acquisition's terms suggest limited potential for a competitive bid from other suitors, leading to concerns about the long-term upside for Cantaloupe's stock. Furthermore, the company's operational focus on the unattended retail space, while appealing, may not provide sufficient growth momentum to offset these valuation challenges amidst the regulatory approval process for the merger.