Criteo (CRTO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Criteo SA has reported a positive trajectory in its key financial metrics with Performance Media growing 3% year-over-year, primarily driven by a 15% increase in Commerce Audiences. The firm's Retail Media segment is anticipated to see significant growth, with expectations of a 20-22% increase in Contribution ex-TAC, which supports a broader revenue growth outlook, leading to an adjustment in 2025 revenue estimates to reflect a 1.2% increase. Additionally, the adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be between 33-34% of Contribution ex-TAC, surpassing market expectations, further underscoring the company’s strong operational performance and profitability.

Criteo SA is facing significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, including anticipated declines in its revenue growth, with estimates projecting a negative 150 basis points year-over-year decrease in 2024 and a further conservative estimate of -120 basis points for retail media in 2025. The company is grappling with headwinds such as weakness in the fashion sector, challenging year-over-year comparisons due to seasonal timing, and expected foreign exchange impacts amounting to $5-7 million in the first quarter of 2025 and $15-20 million for the full year. Furthermore, management indicated that current consensus estimates for 4Q and 1Q do not adequately account for these anticipated challenges, which may lead to underperformance relative to market expectations.