CRCL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Circle Internet Group Inc. is projected to achieve significant growth in net revenue, with expectations of increasing from approximately $0.7 billion in 2024 to around $2 billion by 2027, reflecting a nearly 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). The company anticipates an expansion in adjusted EBITDA from roughly $300 million in 2024 to about $1.3 billion by 2027, highlighting a robust profitability trajectory. Additionally, a notable improvement in profitability margins is expected, as adjusted EBITDA margins are projected to rise from 51.5% in the first half of 2025 to 68% by 2027, driven by stabilizing distribution costs and increasing fee-based revenue.

The analysis indicates a negative outlook for Circle Internet Group's stock primarily due to concerns surrounding the stagnation of USD Coin (USDC) circulation, which is projected to remain below $120 billion due to competitive pressures and potential regulatory hurdles. Additionally, the company's adjusted operating expenses (OPEX) are anticipated to improve as a percentage of revenue over time; however, compression in reserve yields could impede EBITDA growth, leading to a less favorable financial position with an expectation of only ~$1 billion in EBITDA. Furthermore, despite a decline in share price, the stock continues to trade at a significant premium compared to industry peers, with an EV/2026 revenue multiple of ~9x and an EBITDA multiple of ~39x, suggesting a potential overvaluation relative to its growth metrics and challenging competitive landscape.