CRCL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Circle Internet Group Inc. has demonstrated strong growth metrics, with USDC in circulation achieving a remarkable 20.2% quarter-over-quarter increase to $73.75 billion by the end of 3Q25, reflecting robust adoption momentum. The company's total revenue and reserve income reached $1.68 billion for 2024, marking a 16% year-over-year growth, largely attributed to a significant rise in reserve income driven by enhancements in the reserve return rate. Furthermore, projections indicate high potential for future expansion, with expected net revenue growing to approximately $2 billion by 2027, representing a nearly 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), alongside a substantial increase in adjusted EBITDA from $300 million to $1.3 billion during the same period.

Circle Internet Group is facing significant pressure on its reserve return rates, which are projected to decline to 3.14% by the second quarter of 2026, marking a substantial top-line headwind. The company's management anticipates a decrease in reserve margins, alongside potential stagnation in USD Coin circulation due to competition and regulatory challenges, which could adversely impact its EBITDA growth. Furthermore, Circle's stock is trading at a considerable premium compared to its FinTech peers despite the recent decline in its market capitalization, indicating that the current valuation may not be justifiable given the increasing headwinds.