California Resources (CRC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

California Resources is viewed favorably because it combines a high-quality, low-decline conventional asset base with the scale of being California’s largest oil producer, which supports durable cash generation even under conservative assumptions. Its outlook is further strengthened by regulatory de-risking from California Assembly Bill 881 and Senate Bill 237, plus meaningful optionality from carbon management, CCS, and adjacent projects such as the Golden Valley Tech Hub and Beacon partnership, which could add incremental value. Financially, the stock is supported by expectations above the guided EBITDA range, a 5.5x–6.5x 2027E EBITDA valuation tied to CCS upside versus peers at 3.5x, and sustainability progress including a 2045 net-zero target and major water-reclamation and methane-reduction goals.

California Resources is viewed negatively because its valuation and cash-flow assumptions are being revised down after the Uinta Basin divestiture, with NAV/share lowered to $91 from $93 and 2027 production and CFPS cut to 150 MBoepd and $11.53 from 155 MBoepd and $12.64. The sale price of $90MM for assets that produced 5 MBoepd in 1H26 was only modestly disappointing, while the company still faces a 10–15% base decline rate and needs continuous permitting to hold output flat. Its carbon management upside also looks fragile, since CCS depends on subsidies, customer plant construction, pipeline rules, and regulatory approvals, any of which could limit future revenues and weaken the stock.