California Resources (CRC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

California Resources is attractive because its core California oil and gas base is being complemented by a credible carbon-management option that could unlock meaningful value, highlighted by the first CO2 injection at Carbon TerraVault I and 27,479 tonnes stored in the first 2,241 hours, in line with the 100 Mt/a target. The company also benefits from a favorable policy backdrop for CCS, including support tied to California’s carbon-neutrality goals by 2045 and a possible 6 GW clean-capacity procurement path that could create demand for its 275 MW Elk Hills power asset and nearby 2.4 GW of underutilized gas-fired capacity. Beyond CCS, management is reducing capital intensity with a ~5% cut to $450-475 million, while optionality from the Beacon data center project, Uinta asset sales, and roughly $1 billion of Huntington Beach real-estate value supports upside across multiple earnings streams.

California Resources is facing a weaker fundamental setup because its estimated NAV/share was cut to $91 from $93 after a lower valuation for Uinta production and acreage, and its 2027 outlook was trimmed to 150 MBoepd and $11.53 of CFPS from 155 MBoepd and $12.64. The outlook is further pressured by a downside case tied to commodity prices sustainably below $50/bbl WTI and $2.50/Mcf HH, along with slightly lower capital efficiencies and more workovers needed to maintain production. In addition, the stock’s upside depends heavily on successful execution of its development strategy and carbon management business, so any shortfall there or in commodity prices would likely weigh on performance.