Coursera (COUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Coursera is supported by a more compelling post-merger setup, with management reiterating two operating segments, adding greater disclosure on subscription revenue and paid subscribers, and targeting $115M+ in annual run-rate net synergies ahead of schedule, including at least $80M by the end of FY26. The combined company’s FY26 outlook still implies $1.21B-$1.24B of reported revenue, but higher expected margins—61.5% gross margin and about 13% adjusted EBITDA, rising to 16% in 4Q26—suggest stronger earnings power than previously expected. The investment case is further reinforced by its durable enterprise franchise, improving consumer mix toward subscriptions, cross-sell potential across roughly 80% non-overlapping ACV, and an active capital return program with over $70M already repurchased under the $500M authorization.

Coursera is facing a weak fundamental setup because its consumer segment is in transition, with Udemy’s transactional business pressuring top-of-funnel demand, average selling prices, and driving expected Y/Y and Q/Q declines that management expects to persist through FY26 and FY27 as subscriptions are prioritized. Its valuation and growth outlook are further constrained by macro uncertainty, lack of profitability, and a downside scenario based on only 0.1x EV/revenue on CY27 revenue, which implies much less optimistic growth and margin assumptions than historically supported SaaS multiples. Additional pressure comes from intense competition, integration risk from the Udemy acquisition, dependence on university and corporate content partners, and regulatory risks in the OPM and data privacy markets that could hurt Degrees revenue and raise CAC costs.