Costco (COST) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Costco Wholesale demonstrates a strong financial outlook due to its significant member base of approximately 81.4 million and consistently high renewal rates of 93% in the US and Canada. The company's focus on value has led to notable increases in average ticket size, with a reported 4.2% increase, as well as robust digitally-enabled comparable sales growth of 18.9%. Furthermore, projections indicate that Costco is expected to achieve double-digit EPS growth in FY26, supported by effective cost management, continued sales momentum, and approximately 10% growth in membership fee income.

Costco Wholesale is facing a negative outlook due to several fundamental concerns highlighted in recent reports. A notable decline in member renewal rates, which dropped to 89.7% globally and 92.2% in the US and Canada, combined with stagnant membership growth and decelerating year-over-year same-store traffic raise alarms about the company’s future performance. Additionally, with an elevated valuation of 27x EV/NTM EBITDA and increasing competition, any minor shortcomings could lead to significant re-rating pressures on the stock.