Costco (COST) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Costco Wholesale is well positioned because its membership model delivers exceptional renewal rates, strong traffic, and durable pricing power, with 92.3% renewal in the U.S. and Canada and 89.8% worldwide. The company continues to gain share through broad merchandise strength, as fiscal 2025 revenue was roughly 55% grocery and 25% general merchandise, while 9.4% total comps and EPS of $6.75 showed resilient demand and operating leverage. Its outlook is further supported by younger members growing 60% to 25% of membership, rising executive penetration, and expanding digital, delivery, and pharmacy channels that should deepen future spending.

Costco Wholesale is facing a more challenging fundamental setup as tariff-related cost pressures, elevated capex of $7.5bn in FY'27, and competitive e-commerce investments from Amazon and Walmart threaten margins and market share. Despite strong renewal rates of 89.8% globally and 92.3% in U.S./Canada, paid member growth slowed to 3.8% y/y, traffic momentum decelerated on a two-year basis, and the last quarter benefiting from the membership fee increase may leave growth harder to sustain. With valuation still around 27x EV/EBITDA and 36.5x FY'28 EPS, the stock appears vulnerable if membership saturation, softer employment trends, or weakening bulk-demand economics limit Costco's ability to justify its premium multiple.