Traeger (COOK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Traeger Inc has shown a robust financial performance in 4Q24, with total sales increasing by 3.2% to $168.6 million, supported by a significant 30.2% growth in grill revenue driven by higher unit volumes. The company also experienced a notable expansion in the consumables segment, with revenue growth of 25% year-over-year, benefiting from new distribution partnerships, including the entry into Walmart. Additionally, while accessory sales experienced a decline, the overall momentum in the grill and consumables businesses positions Traeger favorably in the market, indicating a positive growth trajectory.

Traeger Inc's financial outlook appears negative due to a forecasted adjusted EBITDA margin contraction of approximately 130 basis points, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.3%. The company's disappointing 2025 guidance predicts flat sales in the range of $595 million to $615 million, amidst slowing grill sales growth and expected declines in both revenue and EBITDA for the first quarter. Furthermore, challenges such as brand relevance, customer acquisition, growth management, and global supply chain issues are likely to impede Traeger's ability to maintain sales momentum and pressure profit margins.