COLM Stock Forecast & Price Target

Columbia Sportswear Co. benefits from improvements in the quality of sales, which are enhancing the underlying gross margin despite the offsetting impact of tariffs projected to become more significant by FY26. The company's unique democratic positioning provides opportunities for market share gains, particularly within its core brands, Columbia and Sorel, which are identified as incremental growth drivers. Furthermore, there is cautious optimism regarding Columbia's potential to capture market share during the fall and winter seasons from smaller competitors, presenting additional upside potential to financial estimates.

Columbia Sportswear's F3Q25 revenue guidance of $904 million to $922 million indicates a decline of 1% to 3% year-over-year, falling short of both Stifel’s and Street’s higher estimates. Additionally, the company’s F3Q25 diluted EPS guidance at $1.00 to $1.20 is significantly below previous estimates, reflecting a drop of $0.35 from Stifel's prior $1.45 midpoint. Furthermore, the reinstated FY25 revenue guidance of $3.33 billion to $3.4 billion, projecting only minor growth, also missed Stifel’s prior midpoint estimate, raising concerns about the company's overall financial performance and growth trajectory.