COLM Stock Forecast & Price Target

Columbia Sportswear Co is experiencing a positive outlook supported by stronger gross margins, which expanded by 44 basis points year-over-year to reach 51.6%, alongside beneficial share repurchase initiatives. The company's revenue growth is being bolstered by improved supply and demand dynamics in its wholesale segment, which accounts for 52% of total revenue, indicating a favorable runway for enhanced revenue and margin progression in 2026. Additionally, international sales, particularly in the EMEA and Asia-Pacific regions, have demonstrated significant growth, with increases of 8%, supporting an overall healthy consolidated business outlook.

Columbia Sportswear Co's first-quarter 2026 diluted earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $0.29-$0.37 was significantly below the prior estimate of $0.57, attributed to lower sales and decreased operating margins, primarily stemming from declines in U.S. wholesale and direct-to-consumer sales. The company's base case assumptions, predicting a -0.4% sales decline in 2025 and a slight gross margin contraction, highlight ongoing challenges, including uncertainty regarding tariffs and recent inventory shortages. Additionally, a notable decline in U.S. wholesale sales by high-teens percent in Q4 raises further concerns about the company's ability to successfully refresh its core brand, suggesting the potential for further stock downside.