CNR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Core Natural Resources Inc. demonstrates a positive outlook supported by a year-to-date increase of 2.5% in coal volumes and a 26% annual rise in proportionate other income, totaling $347 million, which exceeded expectations. The company is implementing an aggressive share buyback program, with plans to repurchase up to 3.9% of shares and an anticipated increase in leverage to 2.7x, bolstered by a projected reduction of ~$500 million in capital expenditures, resulting in expected higher free cash flow generation. Furthermore, Core Natural Resources is capitalizing on its advanced development pipeline, which has grown by 27% over the past year to 84.0 GW, indicating strong future growth potential and improved investor confidence.

Core Natural Resources Inc has reported a significant decline in proportionate generation, running 19% below last twelve months average (LTA) guidance, marking the steepest quarterly drop since Q4/2024. Although the company maintained its fiscal 2026 guidance for total revenue growth of 1%-2%, projections for Q2 suggest a concerning revenue decline of approximately 0.8%-1.6% in the first half of fiscal 2026 and a more pronounced decrease of around 3%-4.5% in Q2 alone. The company’s elevated trading multiples, such as the 15.8x EV/EBITDA, which surpasses historical averages, coupled with anticipated declines across key revenue segments, raise red flags regarding future profitability and performance.