CNCK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Coincheck Group NV has demonstrated solid growth in its verified user base, with increases of 16% and 10% year-over-year in FY24 and FY25, respectively, indicating positive momentum in user engagement. The company's strategy of maintaining prudent marketing spend has resulted in favorable EBITDA margins, particularly during periods of increased trading volume, illustrating effective cost management. Furthermore, the expansion of product offerings beyond cryptocurrencies, including features like NFTs, aids in diversifying revenue streams and enhancing overall unit economics.

Coincheck Group NV faces a challenging outlook, with forecasts indicating a high-single-digit decline in gross profit per monthly user for FY26, followed by projected modest growth in FY27, further reliant on marketplace trading volume. Additionally, estimates show a moderate decrease in selling, general, and administrative expenses, excluding customer acquisition costs, for FY26 and FY27, which may not sufficiently offset the overall revenue pressures. The company's anticipated modest decline in gross margin due to increasing competitive pressure is likely to exacerbate these financial challenges, suggesting a weaker financial position in the upcoming years.