Chewy (CHWY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Chewy is supported by a highly sticky autoship model that now captures 84.6% of sales, a 21.7 million active-customer base, and steady share gains in a $144 billion U.S. pet market, which helped 2Q26 revenue reach $3.33 billion, up 7.3% year over year. Profitability is improving as EBITDA rose 23.7% to $226.7 million with a 6.8% margin, aided by SG&A leverage, automation, and selective marketing investment, even as management keeps raising guidance to $13.46 billion-$13.57 billion in FY26 revenue and 6.7%-6.8% EBITDA margin. The bullish case is strengthened by expanding higher-margin growth vectors such as Chewy Ads, pharmacy, telehealth, and veterinary clinics, which can deepen customer engagement and support the company’s move from an $82 million EBITDA loss in FY19 to positive EBITDA of $719 million in FY25.

Chewy is facing a tougher fundamental backdrop because near-term pet household growth has slowed, pet spend growth has softened over the last few years, and continued weakness in consumer spending could pressure discretionary purchases. Its 21.7M active customers are still growing, but organic net adds are only at the low end of the 150–250K quarterly framework, while heavy competition from Amazon, Walmart, and Target could further limit retention, pricing power, and LTV/CAC efficiency. The stock’s 7.6x 2027E EBITDA multiple reflects skepticism about its slower growth and execution risk as it ramps health services, vet clinics, international expansion, and advertising, all while inflationary freight, labor, and vendor concentration pressures threaten margins and FCF.