CHKP Stock Forecast & Price Target

Check Point Software Tech is attractive because its recurring-security engine remains resilient: 1Q security subscriptions grew 11.2% to $323.2 million, with ARR growth above 40% in email, ERM, and SASE cohorts and CTEM up 96% y/y, even as short-term GTM disruption pressured product sales. The company’s long runway is supported by a broadened portfolio spanning Quantum firewalls, the Infinity Platform, Harmony SASE, CloudGuard, and a nascent AI security pillar, while management expects subscription growth to reaccelerate and has highlighted 2027 as the point when AI security could become material. Valuation and capital allocation also support the bullish view, as the stock trades at 4.3x EV/NTM recurring revenue and 8.0x EV/NTM FCF versus richer peer multiples, alongside a $2B share repurchase authorization announced on May 11.

Check Point Software Tech is facing weakening fundamentals because 1Q product revenue fell 2.9% y/y, billings declined 1.0% versus expectations for +4.5%, and almost all key metrics missed consensus after GTM changes disrupted firewall refresh and new-business pipelines. Management lowered FY/26 revenue guidance to $2,810M midpoint from $2,890M, while product revenue is now expected at $512.4M in FY26, down 6.5% y/y, implying limited near-term upside as the product decline is concentrated in a highly competitive firewall market. Although security subscription revenue rose 11% y/y to $323M and RPO increased 7% y/y to $2.59B, those gains are not yet offsetting product weakness, potential margin pressure from DRAM pricing, and macro risk tied to EMEA exposure.