Century Aluminum (CENX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Century Aluminum has made significant progress in optimizing operations and securing strategic supply agreements, particularly with Glencore, which supports a robust revenue stream and stability in alumina sourcing. The company is also focusing on sustainability, evidenced by substantial improvements in its environmental metrics, including reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and increased reliance on renewable energy sources, particularly from its Iceland operations. Furthermore, the forecasted adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q4 of $70M-$80M, with a potential increase to around $100M in Q1, reflects strong financial performance and growth momentum, positioning Century Aluminum favorably in the market.

Century Aluminum faces operational challenges that can result in production shortfalls and increased per-metric ton costs, adversely affecting profitability. The company's liquidity has declined quarter-over-quarter due to rising inventory levels and alumina shipment timing, raising concerns about its financial stability in the near term. Additionally, the reliance on fluctuating raw material costs, combined with potential legislative changes impacting long-lived assets, adds further uncertainty to Century Aluminum's fiscal outlook.