Celsius Holdings (CELH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Celsius Holdings is supported by a favorable long-term energy drink backdrop, with DD% category volume growth, a secular shift toward zero sugar, and Alani Nu’s strong appeal to female consumers helping offset volatility in the core Celsius brand. Even after gross margin fell ~630 bps y/y to 48.1% and adjusted EBITDA declined 12.4% to $184.2 million, the company still expects margin recovery from Alani Nu and Rockstar integration, a second North Carolina manufacturing line in the back half of FY26, and price-pack actions that can aid profitability. The bull case is further reinforced by PepsiCo’s strategic ownership, a HSD% FCF yield, and management’s ability to convert a currently noisy execution story into DD% adj. EBITDA growth.

Celsius Holdings is facing a negative fundamental setup because 2Q26 revenue of $817.9 million and adjusted EBITDA of $184.2 million both missed expectations, while brand Celsius fell about 12% year over year versus scanner trends that had looked much stronger. The gap reflects inventory rebalancing, delayed shelf resets, higher promotional spend, and weaker visibility in a business that relies on third-party co-packers and PepsiCo distribution, leaving reported results vulnerable to shipment timing and gross-to-net pressure. Alani Nu still grew, but higher distribution costs and a potential up to 15% gross sales headwind in 2H26, plus innovation delayed until 2027, suggest near-term earnings and revenue momentum remain under pressure.